Will the iPhone be all things to everyone?

Predicting the future is a tricky business. Still, if you're bent on doing it you could do worse than by picking today's trends as a starting point. What trends do we see right now?

• Broadband speed increases every year
• Processors get more powerful and smaller
• Computation moves from desktop to the cloud

Those are common sense things right? A few years ago you were likely excited by getting 5 Mbps and now that speed would feel like a crawl. The processor thing is a no brainer, Steve Jobs said the reason for the switch to Intel was motivated by Intel's superior computation to watt roadmap. The last trend is the much talked about cloud computing. That is coming, you see it with Google Chrome and a number of web apps.

Now grasp your iPhone and realize that in a few years this might be your only computer. That is crazy talk you say? There is no way you can get by with just an iPhone! Right now you can't. The keyboard is too small for comfortable typing, the screen is too small for really comfortable browsing and it won't run flash. No flash means no Desktop Tower Defense and no Desktop Tower Defense means no way, no how!

Those are valid objections, but remember we're trying to peer into the future. The first thing to consider is whether a constant computer companion is something people would want. iPhone sales say yes but it is still seen as more of a phone than a computer. Looking at the reception of wearable computers on the other hand tells you that maybe the idea of a constant computer isn't so compelling. That might be changing, already there are Apps for the iPhone that promise to give you loads of information about the world around you. So if Apps like Sekai Camera take off then the case for a 24/7 computer will be made.

Assuming the market will exist for a constant computer companion is the iPhone the right kind of device? Think about what the iPhone can do and what it can't do. There's no way it would be a comfortable computing platform for you, you do far too much with your computer. But what about your neighbor Bob? Well, not Bob, that guy has serious issues. Think of the neighbor on the other side, Phil. All Phil wants to do is look at the internet and read email. The iPhone can do that with ease but Phil would reject it because it of the small screen size and lack of a real keyboard. But imagine a docking station powered by some future iteration of the iPhone with a full (wireless) keyboard and reasonable screen size. That is something Phil might go for.

When Phil does opt for an iPhone docking station he's going to realize that he is paying $30 for unlimited data on the iPhone and dropping another $50 for the internet coming into his house. That is a redundant payment so see ya later IP provider. So Phil gets one less bill and his computing and telephony needs are satisfied. This is a winning proposition for Phil.

Of course, you can extrapolate this as far as you want to go. The iPhone to power your TV (I already get TV over IP, it is okay), the landline is already long gone for many (codgers hang onto to it to talk to telemarketers and to answer calls from people who want to talk to someone else) and long distance, which used to be a major part of an phone bill 20 years ago, is basically free.

All of which makes Apple's venture into the cell phone market more interesting than just a cool buttonless cell phone. Is it a secret play into the living room where companies want so badly to be? Is it a tactic to control much more of consumer experience than a single computer ever could? It is too early to say but a few things are certain: OS X is going to pass Windows Mobile soon, in a few years iPhone features will be standard features on all cell phones, and sooner or later people aren't going to be paying for TV, phone and data because it is all just data.  When that happens, if Apple doesn't make the box for all of that data to go through someone else will. But I bet Apple wants to build that box, er phone.