The Cost of Rumors
Well the most obvious the cost of Rumors is $9.99 (not available on iTunes). The costs of the more standard rumors (hardware, software, et al) are a little harder to pin down. We won’t concern ourselves with a quantification of monetary damages, those matters are for accountants and product managers, instead the focus must be on the cost of rumors as it relates to the Mac enthusiast.
A bit of background info is in order. ThinkSecret and others posted rumors revealing the (at the time) upcoming Mac Mini, the Shuffle and a project code named “Asteroid.” When MacWorld rolled around the Mini and the Shuffle did make an appearance but project “Asteroid” was a no show. Most people chalked it up to an Apple product that didn’t make the cut. That thought changed when the legal arm of Apple started suing ThinkSecret and a few other sites for disclosing trade secrets.
Apple’s actions have been a topic of much discussion on the internet. Predictably people fall into one of two camps: those who staunchly defend Apple’s position and those that maintain that the individuals who revealed Apple’s plans are protected by free speech. The general thought seems to be that Apple is the Cobra Kai to the websites Daniel San, in other words they are being brutish and overbearing. In actuality each side can make a fairly compelling case and rehashing the issue once again won’t result in any resolution, the case is in the hands of the judiciary system now and they will be the final arbiters of conflict.
So leaving the conflict to the assorted legal powers that be the question can be recast as follows: What are the rumors doing for (or perhaps to) the average Mac user? This is a question that that has been largely overlooked, and probably the question most relevant to the people not involved directly in the various lawsuits.
To get an idea of the most obvious effect hop in your car and head to your nearest Apple retailer and ask to buy the fabled Asteroid. You’ll be met with blank stares. You see the product never made it out for the general public to enjoy. Asteroid was rumored to be a FireWire breakout box more or less designed to get music generated the old fashioned way (plucking, blowing or hitting) into your computer. Personally this was no big loss, I spent two days in junior high band and was asked to sign an agreement that I never attempted to make music again. On other hand there are plenty of GarageBand fans out there who would absolutely love a super easy method for getting their electric guitar licks into a GarageBand track. The general reason given for Asteroid being confined to a lab in California is not one of usability or cost but rather because of the rumors. The current wisdom is that, in a fit of spitefulness, Steve Jobs nixed the release of “Asteroid” because it showed up on the rumor sites. If that is the reason it will be hard to lay that loss anywhere but at the feet of the iCEO.
There exists a more subtle loss and that is the loss of shock. Knowing about the $500 dollar Mac Mini and the Shuffle ruined the surprise for a lot of people. Admittedly people were still wowed by the design and diminutive size of both products but, honestly, it isn’t quite the same as sitting around expecting PowerBook speed bumps and then being floored by the small, squareish fully powered G4 system priced slightly more than an iPod and a music player so tiny it features a warning saying “Do not eat iPod Shuffle.” This loss is much easier to assign to the various web sites. While I’m sure Apple will try to quantify the loss in terms of lost media exposure the argument rings hollow, one merely has to look at the mainstream media sources regurgitating the news pre MacWorld to realize that media exposure increased. So with no real way to place a value on the rumor suffice it note that it would have been really nice to be truly stunned by the MacWorld introductions.
In the end the biggest casualty of the rumors may be the rumor sites. Not being much of a legal mind I couldn’t guess what the likely outcome will be of the litigation (though informed sources have told me…I kid, I kid). If it breaks in Apple’s favor the websites will be hammered, NDA violators are revealed and it will undoubtedly put a major damper on the entire rumor effort. I’m not sure this will be a bad thing. In the past Apple has been a bit of a tighter ship and rumors tended to be little more than made up guesses posing as fact. The entire mess was great for entertainment value if nothing else. Most people wouldn’t mind a return to those days.
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Comments
Thanks for the article, Chris. Your second to last paragraph resonates with something I’ve felt about the Apple/Mac rumors game as it’s being played nowadays: too often it’s spoiling the element of surprise.
For people overfeeding on rumors, an analogy I’ve used is it being like impatient, hyper-anxious children rummaging through their parents closets looking for gifts before they’re meant to be opened. And for those who initiate certain rumors, it’s almost like they don’t have enough motivation to create their own future without robbing one from someone else. There’s probably with some formal psychological term to describe both groups when they behave like that. Yes, I’m knowingly using extremes to dramatize the point.
In general, I have the impression people sometimes share information simply because they can share it, without concern for whether or not it’s appropriate (in context). Maybe they’ve never had the experience of telling someone something privately that’s carelessly and thoughtlessly openly revealed later (at least before it’s intended to be). I certainly don’t like oversecretiveness but sometimes a little self-restraint shows maturity.
Really, are we so uninspired that we need to be fed rumors about future products in order to speculate about them? And isn’t it more fun being surprised than using a rumor to set yourself up for disappointment or an “I told you so” response?